Tennis is a game of primary and secondary patterns that are heavily dictated by point scores.
When players want to get ahead, or when they feel they really need a point, they tend to gravitate to high percentage primary patterns of play that they know will deliver a winning percentage.
When they are already ahead in the score, are looking to confuse the opponent or are in a position where they can afford to lose the point, they generally throw in a lower percentage secondary pattern of play.
An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of Rafael Nadal’s first-serve patterns in 2019 highlights exactly how the Spaniard successfully mixed strategies between primary and secondary patterns to keep opponents off balance. The server location data set comes from ATP Masters 1000 events in 2019 and the recent Nitto ATP Finals.
First-Serve Location: Love All
This is a perfect time to run a primary pattern, which for Nadal, means a slice first serve down the T. That’s exactly what he gravitated to more than six times out of 10 this season. The thinking here is to start the game on the right foot with what he knows best and surge to 15/0 as many times as possible.
Nadal First-Serve Direction Love All
Wide = 25.4% (45)
Body = 13.0% (23)
T = 61.6% (109)
Nadal won 90 percent of his service games in 2019, and if he went ahead 15/0, that metric elevated to 94 percent (473/502). But when Nadal next returns to the Deuce Court after completing two points, his mindset is very much dictated by the point score. Read More
